The Iran conflict is reshaping annual air cargo contract negotiations as shippers weigh spot rates against long-term deals, reports Washington DC's Supply Chain Dive.

Xeneta said the war has accelerated a trend toward shorter three-month agreements, reducing rate validity. Chief air freight officer Niall van de Wouw advised postponing tenders given the uncertainty.

US military strikes on Iran on February 28 disrupted logistics in the Middle East, with carriers facing service interruptions. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has driven oil costs higher, nearly doubling jet fuel prices.

On March 30, US Gulf Coast kerosene-type jet fuel reached US$4.24, up from $3.93 the week before, according to the US Energy Information Administration. Mr van de Wouw warned prolonged conflict could trigger wider economic fallout and dampen demand.

Dubai and Doha remain strategic hubs, but the disruption is altering flows across South Asia-Americas lanes. Rates from Northeast and Southeast Asia to North America have surged by mid to high double digits year on year, while South Asia-North America rose 75 per cent.

Xeneta reported March spot rates averaged $2.86 per kg, up 14 per cent year on year and the highest since December 2024. Global volumes fell 3 per cent, while the dynamic load factor rose to 65 per cent.

Longer-term rates on Asia-America lanes increased only slightly, influenced by tariffs and the end of de minimis exemptions. Despite weak growth expectations for 2026, Xeneta said lessons from past crises provide some short-term stability as the market adjusts.

資料來源：